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  1. #181
    I DON'T LIKE POKEMON Hero of Algol j_factor's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrMatthews View Post
    So on one hand, you have a virus that will directly affect a very small percentage of us (in varying degrees, at that). On the other hand, we are plunging into a global economic crisis which will affect 100% of us.
    Not sure what your point is supposed to be, but it would be extremely worse for our economy if we were to try to just move along and go back to normal business, and the death toll reaches seven digits instead of 200k. You seem to think there's a choice between either focusing on public health to the detriment of our economy, or focusing on our economy to the detriment of public health. But that's backwards. When this is over, the countries that were the most proactive and responded most effectively to the virus will be the economies least damaged. International corporations aren't going to "reward" countries for trying to favor business over public health; investor confidence will be higher in places where the response was more effective and more robust. If we do badly enough, we run the risk of a massive exodus of international investment out of the USA, potentially leading to the US dollar losing its place as the world's reserve currency and threatening our ability to sell government bonds and US Treasury securities, and if that happens we are truly fucked. But even without that worst-case scenario, how well we are deemed to have responded to the crisis, relative to other countries, will have a major and lasting impact.


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  2. #182
    Blast processor Melf's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrMatthews View Post
    I remember our last recession. It sucked. Just out of curiosity, were you old enough to work back then?
    I was old enough to work during the 1987 plunge, and we bounced back. We will from this as well.

    How about this: itís none of my business what you do. If this virus scares you and you feel like the risk is simply not worth it, then stay inside. I donít mean you specifically, I mean people like you. You people isolate yourselves: no judgement. The rest of us will keep the world turning until a vaccine is developed (which, spoiler alert, may still not guarantee your survival). Iíll even forfeit my stimulus check, you can have it. Me being outside is not a burden to any of you: quite the opposite, in fact.
    You being outside IS a burden if you catch this thing and spread it by being outside and interacting. That's precisely why you should stay inside. You don't know who has it, and you won't know if you have it for days. Think of how many times you might expose yourself to it and how many people you could spread it to during that time.

    But if you think for a second that itís possible for EVERYONE to stay inside for even two weeks, you are kidding yourself. Not gonna happen. I suppose you think that doctors, first responders, firefighters, and police officers should stay at home, too? How about all those homeless people? I suppose you think they should get all rounded up and locked up? Under the pretense of ďpublic safety?Ē All of these things will have to happen for your scenario to work.
    Those are actually the only people who should be out. Even then, they get infected. How many doctors and nurses have caught it already? Here in PR, they've had to close 4 police stations because of possible contamination. Imagine if everyone was out and about.

    One more question for you: you think we should make a sacrifice for the good of the world. Well, i think we should make a sacrifice for the good of the world, too. Your sacrifice helps us short-term, but creates problems later. My sacrifice helps us long-term, but potentially creates problems now. Why would you expect that I would ever see things your way?
    I'm not too keen on people dying for the economy. Any risk of me infecting my mom or grandparents isn't worth keeping the dollar on top, sorry. Economies bounce back, families don't.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mega Drive Bowlsey View Post
    Nobody is saying 'it's just the flu'. We know it's more serious than that. What MrMatty and I are saying is that it's the aftermath of this that should be scaring people, not the virus itself. This will be gone in a few months, the global aftereffects will be with us for years! Also can we please put Covid-19 into some sort of perspective, it's not a fraction as deadly as the 'Spanish Flu' of 1918, nor is it going to wipe out half the world's population like the bubonic plague did in Medieval times. Covid-19 seems to predominantly affect the weak and those with compromised immune systems, with a few exceptions here and there. It is not a wholesale killer like the two historical pandemics I mentioned. Context is so important in an age of hysteria.
    It doesn't have to wipe out millions. 100,000 deaths in the U.S. would be horrific. We've invaded countries for far fewer deaths, so I don't understand why people are shrugging their shoulders at six figures. Risking lives to save the economy presents a much more disturbing context, in my opinion.

  3. #183
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mega Drive Bowlsey View Post
    Nobody is saying 'it's just the flu'. We know it's more serious than that. What MrMatty and I are saying is that it's the aftermath of this that should be scaring people, not the virus itself. This will be gone in a few months, the global aftereffects will be with us for years! Also can we please put Covid-19 into some sort of perspective, it's not a fraction as deadly as the 'Spanish Flu' of 1918, nor is it going to wipe out half the world's population like the bubonic plague did in Medieval times. Covid-19 seems to predominantly affect the weak and those with compromised immune systems, with a few exceptions here and there. It is not a wholesale killer like the two historical pandemics I mentioned. Context is so important in an age of hysteria.
    I agree with you the impact of the economy is going to be far worse than the virus itself, I am personally worried about paying bills even though we are still working. That is no reason to rush back to normal too soon.
    The economy is fucked short term regardless right now, right now its is about controlling the severity of the infection rates and trying to protect the hospitals and health systems from total breakdown and failure. If we are able to control the spread until a time that we can get an effective treatment then the economy will recover far quicker. If what is happening in Italy, Spain and in NYC happens all over the US we are going to be far more fucked, economy and all.

    As for your comparison, COVID19 maybe more survivable than the plague and spanish flu now, but that it thanks to advances in medicine and understanding that ignoring a highly infectious virus and continuing as if nothing is wrong would create a far larger problem. People weren't practicing social distancing and cancelling large gatherings during the spanish flu and look what happened.

  4. #184
    Mega Driver Hedgehog-in-TrainingMaster of Shinobi Gryson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mega Drive Bowlsey View Post
    Nobody is saying 'it's just the flu'. We know it's more serious than that. What MrMatty and I are saying is that it's the aftermath of this that should be scaring people, not the virus itself. This will be gone in a few months, the global aftereffects will be with us for years! Also can we please put Covid-19 into some sort of perspective, it's not a fraction as deadly as the 'Spanish Flu' of 1918, nor is it going to wipe out half the world's population like the bubonic plague did in Medieval times. Covid-19 seems to predominantly affect the weak and those with compromised immune systems, with a few exceptions here and there. It is not a wholesale killer like the two historical pandemics I mentioned. Context is so important in an age of hysteria.
    The real risk here is if the healthcare system is overwhelmed (as we've seen in Italy and as is happening in New York).

    Estimates of mortality rates across age groups are 1% for those without pre-existing conditions and 10% for those with pre-existing conditions in the best case scenario. That means given the ICU resources / ventilators to treat everyone, we can still expect about 1/100 healthy people to die and 1/10 otherwise sick people to die. As it is now, otherwise healthy people are not dying that often from COVID-19, but many are spending 2-3 weeks on a ventilator in an ICU.

    But the healthcare system will never be able to provide care for even a fraction of the infected if the virus is allowed to spread uncontrolled. In the worse case scenario, possibly millions of people who would otherwise survive will die due to a lack of healthcare resources. And then it starts to look more like the Spanish Flu of 1918.

    That's only the first negative, though. An overloaded healthcare system means nobody is going to get the treatment they need. Pray you aren't in a car accident or need surgery of some sort. In Italy alone, more than 60 doctors have already died from COVID-19, and many nurses have died as well. The healthcare system will simply be overwhelmed. We aren't talking months from now, either. That could occur in days if not every effort is taken to slow the spread.

    Yes, the economy is fucked, but the solution is not to tell people to go back to work. First, few people in their right mind want to expose themselves and their loved ones to a possibly debilitating or deadly infection, so a large chunk of people are not going to return to work and become happy consumers just because you want them to. Second, the negative consequences of letting the virus go uncontrolled are likely going to fuck the economy harder than anything. People certainly aren't going to be happy consumers when they're having to bury countless friends and relatives over many months, in an environment where it is no longer possible to get emergency care at a hospital.

    The solution, as just about every rational person is yelling at the top of their lungs, is to stay home and avoid all contact with others unless absolutely essential.

    Quote Originally Posted by j_factor View Post
    Not sure what your point is supposed to be, but it would be extremely worse for our economy if we were to try to just move along and go back to normal business, and the death toll reaches seven digits instead of 200k. You seem to think there's a choice between either focusing on public health to the detriment of our economy, or focusing on our economy to the detriment of public health. But that's backwards. When this is over, the countries that were the most proactive and responded most effectively to the virus will be the economies least damaged. International corporations aren't going to "reward" countries for trying to favor business over public health; investor confidence will be higher in places where the response was more effective and more robust. If we do badly enough, we run the risk of a massive exodus of international investment out of the USA, potentially leading to the US dollar losing its place as the world's reserve currency and threatening our ability to sell government bonds and US Treasury securities, and if that happens we are truly fucked. But even without that worst-case scenario, how well we are deemed to have responded to the crisis, relative to other countries, will have a major and lasting impact.
    Word.

    We've seen certain countries in East Asia, such as South Korea, who responded very aggressively from the beginning and managed to keep the virus somewhat under control. People there are still working, the economy has not shut down. The quite horrible initial response in countries such as the US and the UK has made the situation much worse there.

    Thankfully, it seems like most politicians and the public have begun to understand the risk, but there are still a few who insist that this is some kind of media scare. Pray they are not enough to fuck over us all.

  5. #185
    Rebel scum Shining Hero MrMatthews's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Melf View Post
    I'm not too keen on people dying for the economy. Any risk of me infecting my mom or grandparents isn't worth keeping the dollar on top, sorry. Economies bounce back, families don't.
    Iím not trying to be a wiseass here, but sounds a lot like youíre saying that other people have made it unsafe for you to go outside and interact with the public and then go interact with your mom and grandparents. But Iím not going to hold you to that, Iím assuming that, since you are clearly aware of the risks, you are being very responsible and sensible; going out only when necessary and being vigilant about washing your hands and maintaining a good social distance.

    So assuming youíre doing the same thing most other people are doing, whoís fault is it if you get sick? If you are staying in your home most of the day and doing all the things the experts are recommending, if you get sick anyway, who are you going to blame? Honest question. Is it my fault?

    Do you understand what Iím saying? If the only thing you can really do is avoiding contact with other people and wash wash wash your hands, do you really need a government official to stand over your shoulder and make you do it ... or is that maybe something you can handle on your own?

  6. #186
    Master of Shinobi Mega Drive Bowlsey's Avatar
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    It's no good people telling me to 'stay home', I can't! I'm classed as a key worker here in the UK, and therefore have no option but to carry on as normal, going to work and working in sometimes quite close proximity to my colleagues. I don't know if they have the virus or not! I don't know where the fuck they've been on their days off, or who they've come into contact with! I mean luckily we have access to tyvek suits and face masks where I work, which helps, but there are a lot of worried people where I work. I also live with my elderly father, so if I catch something and bring it home with me, he's fucked! What can I do? I can't afford to stay home, and if I don't work I don't get paid, which means I won't be able to pay for bills, food or be able to support my sister and her kids. I don't have many options here and I'm just trying to keep calm and carry on.

  7. #187
    Rebel scum Shining Hero MrMatthews's Avatar
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    Hereís some other stuff to consider:

    With employment comes healthcare. My wife works for Blue Shield, and her day has been spent denying people coverage because theyíve been unemployed for a month.

    With employment comes money for other things, like food. Thereís been 52,000(ish) deaths from Coronavirus worldwide. In the same timeframe, around 2-3 million people have died from hunger.

    Also, hopefully no one is living off government assistance ... thatís funded by people working. Are you collecting unemployment right now? Where do you think that money comes from? What if EVERYONE went on unemployment? Think thereís enough money to go around?


    And for the record, Iím a service plumber. Iím not asking for a medal or anything... but hopefully no oneís water heater goes out or their house backs up while weíre on lockdown.
    Last edited by MrMatthews; 04-02-2020 at 08:14 PM.

  8. #188
    Mega Driver Hedgehog-in-TrainingMaster of Shinobi Gryson's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mega Drive Bowlsey View Post
    It's no good people telling me to 'stay home', I can't! I'm classed as a key worker here in the UK, and therefore have no option but to carry on as normal, going to work and working in sometimes quite close proximity to my colleagues. I don't know if they have the virus or not! I don't know where the fuck they've been on their days off, or who they've come into contact with! I mean luckily we have access to tyvek suits and face masks where I work, which helps, but there are a lot of worried people where I work. I also live with my elderly father, so if I catch something and bring it home with me, he's fucked! What can I do? I can't afford to stay home, and if I don't work I don't get paid, which means I won't be able to pay for bills, food or be able to support my sister and her kids. I don't have many options here and I'm just trying to keep calm and carry on.
    You're stuck in a situation where you feel you have no choice but to work - that's all the more reason why you should be encouraging others to stay home. You and your father will be safer from infection if people take the virus more seriously and stay home.

    I really can't understand why someone in your situation would encourage others to go to work and try to downplay the seriousness of this. Perhaps it's a misunderstanding?

  9. #189
    Master of Shinobi Mega Drive Bowlsey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gryson View Post
    You're stuck in a situation where you feel you have no choice but to work - that's all the more reason why you should be encouraging others to stay home. You and your father will be safer from infection if people take the virus more seriously and stay home.

    I really can't understand why someone in your situation would encourage others to go to work and try to downplay the seriousness of this. Perhaps it's a misunderstanding?
    I'm not encouraging others to do anything. People are following the advice from their respective governments and I respect that. I just want this virus to be seen in the correct context and to try to stop people, like my sister, from being scared to death by everything she hears or sees on TV. I know this is bad, I just don't want people to be scared shitless by it because, in the long run, that is not going to help anyone.

  10. #190
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mega Drive Bowlsey View Post
    I'm not encouraging others to do anything. People are following the advice from their respective governments and I respect that. I just want this virus to be seen in the correct context and to try to stop people, like my sister, from being scared to death by everything she hears or sees on TV. I know this is bad, I just don't want people to be scared shitless by it because, in the long run, that is not going to help anyone.
    We can't be responsible for how people emotionally respond to the truth. The truth is that the virus could kill a very large number of people, especially if we do nothing. As I previously mentioned, the US government now estimates that 2.2 million could die if we do not respond aggressively. That's a truly incredible number (in contrast, 400,000 Americans died in World War 2). That doesn't make me panic - that makes me want to take action to bring about the best possible outcome.

    I think it would be a mistake to try to mislead people by saying "it's just like the flu" or "it only affects people over the age of 80" or whatever else has been said in this thread in order to stop them from panicking. Instead, help them understand the truth that yes, the situation is possibly bad, but if we respond with care then we can keep it under control. Downplaying the severity is only going to cause people to make poor decisions that spread the virus further.

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    Quote Originally Posted by MrMatthews View Post
    you have a virus that will directly affect a very small percentage of us (in varying degrees, at that).
    Quote Originally Posted by Mega Drive Bowlsey View Post
    Covid-19 seems to predominantly affect the weak and those with compromised immune systems, with a few exceptions here and there.
    This is just completely wrong and you're both spreading misinformation actually.
    The current hospitalization rate is about 19 percent worldwide and that's the number which really matters.

    The death toll rises sharply when you need hospitalization and you can't have it 'cause all the beds are already occupied. That's what has been happening in Italy and Spain for days.

    One really stupid concept I see repeated here is the implied "Well, the risk group is mostly made of old farts and weak people who are going to die soon anyway" when people try to brush off the seriousness of the issue by pointing to the fatality rate among the "young" population.
    Well, besides being just irresponsible and cold to think like that, you gotta be really dense to not realize that many of the experts and most relevant contributors to a plethora of scientific, artistic and industrial efforts actually belong to that "old fart"/"weak" group.

    Good luck letting all those people die and trying to bounce back from an inevitable recession and major social disaster after that.

  12. #192
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    Quote Originally Posted by MrMatthews View Post
    Iím not trying to be a wiseass here, but sounds a lot like youíre saying that other people have made it unsafe for you to go outside and interact with the public and then go interact with your mom and grandparents. But Iím not going to hold you to that, Iím assuming that, since you are clearly aware of the risks, you are being very responsible and sensible; going out only when necessary and being vigilant about washing your hands and maintaining a good social distance.

    So assuming youíre doing the same thing most other people are doing, whoís fault is it if you get sick? If you are staying in your home most of the day and doing all the things the experts are recommending, if you get sick anyway, who are you going to blame? Honest question. Is it my fault?

    Do you understand what Iím saying? If the only thing you can really do is avoiding contact with other people and wash wash wash your hands, do you really need a government official to stand over your shoulder and make you do it ... or is that maybe something you can handle on your own?
    The only appropriate response to your posts; clearly intelligence is not your string point. Thanks for contributing to the problem.

    @Mega Drive Bowlsey. Yo. Sorry you're fucked, but those that can, should be doing what they can.. and stay at home.



    To no one in particular:

    We know the growth is polynomial, and trends show doubling every 3-4 days (we'll use 4 here). In 90 days 5.9million people will have been infected. In 110 days, 190million people will be infected.

    If you're in the US.. let run some really conservative numbers for you: The population is currently 330,000,000 in the country. If we say the saturation point is close to 80%, but only 65% of that 80% are symptomatic.. that's 171,600,000‬ people that will have complications from the virus (i.e. simply get sick like you would expect). The trend right now is 5% death rate for symptomatic case (it's higher in some countries). 8.5million people in the US are projected to die. Of that 8.5, people in the lower age group risk of 20-40 years old, 1.7million will die.

    The 200-400k estimate is best case scenario (social distancing works), not the current trend. Staying home and isolating is going to flatten out the numbers I provided above. If that means we can save ~1.3million, in their prime, and 8million people total, from dying? I'd saying it kinda worth it the attempt. You can resurrect the economy; you can't resurrect the dead.

    Again, what's more likely? The entire fucking world, and experts, are insane and are over reacting.. or you single limited perspective is correct? I'm gonna go with the experts and the world on this one.

    Of course, none of this even touches on what would happened if there wasn't a social distancing enforcement.. fucking christ the hospitals and related healthcare systems would simply collapse. That means people that actually need medical attention, for things outside the virus, would not be able to get that care (increase suffering and potentially death). And go figure what kind of impact THAT would have as a panic, and on the economy.

    So if you think the world, government, and local authority is an over reaction... maybe take a little more time to think about the factors and the situation.

    It's not just that I have people really close to me, in the 20+ age, that are in the higher risk bracket - but that I can at least make sense of the implications of this virus.

  13. #193
    End of line.. Hero of Algol gamevet's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Barone View Post
    This is just completely wrong and you're both spreading misinformation actually.
    The current hospitalization rate is about 19 percent worldwide and that's the number which really matters.

    The death toll rises sharply when you need hospitalization and you can't have it 'cause all the beds are already occupied. That's what has been happening in Italy and Spain for days.

    One really stupid concept I see repeated here is the implied "Well, the risk group is mostly made of old farts and weak people who are going to die soon anyway" when people try to brush off the seriousness of the issue by pointing to the fatality rate among the "young" population.
    Well, besides being just irresponsible and cold to think like that, you gotta be really dense to not realize that many of the experts and most relevant contributors to a plethora of scientific, artistic and industrial efforts actually belong to that "old fart"/"weak" group.

    Good luck letting all those people die and trying to bounce back from an inevitable recession and major social disaster after that.
    It's misleading because there are two strains of the virus. https://abcnews.go.com/Health/scient...ry?id=69391954

    Nobody seems to have an answer about which one is more fatal. I've heard of an example where a couple had contracted the virus, and while the husband had more dire symptoms, he survived while his wife died.
    A Black Falcon: no, computer games and video games are NOT the same thing. Video games are on consoles, computer games are on PC. The two kinds of games are different, and have significantly different design styles, distribution methods, and game genre selections. Computer gaming and console (video) gaming are NOT the same thing."



  14. #194
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    I dunno how credible this site is. I also know we have heard many working on vaccines. This one claims it can have human trials sooner than expected if the FDA grants it. https://triblive.com/local/pittsburg...nimal-testing/

    Life!? ... What console is that on?



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  15. #195
    Master of Shinobi Mega Drive Bowlsey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Barone View Post
    This is just completely wrong and you're both spreading misinformation actually.
    The current hospitalization rate is about 19 percent worldwide and that's the number which really matters.

    The death toll rises sharply when you need hospitalization and you can't have it 'cause all the beds are already occupied. That's what has been happening in Italy and Spain for days.

    One really stupid concept I see repeated here is the implied "Well, the risk group is mostly made of old farts and weak people who are going to die soon anyway" when people try to brush off the seriousness of the issue by pointing to the fatality rate among the "young" population.
    Well, besides being just irresponsible and cold to think like that, you gotta be really dense to not realize that many of the experts and most relevant contributors to a plethora of scientific, artistic and industrial efforts actually belong to that "old fart"/"weak" group.

    Good luck letting all those people die and trying to bounce back from an inevitable recession and major social disaster after that.
    How can I be spreading misinformation when the information I have was gleaned from listening to doctors and government officials regarding the severity of the virus and who it most adversely affects?! People with underlying health issues, obese people, chronic asthma sufferers, people with heart conditions, idiots who still smoke...etc. Those are medical facts, not 'misinformation'. We're being 'cold' for pointing out the facts? Get off your fucking high horse, Barone. Some people are far more likely to die than others, yes that is a fact and, guess what, it's always been the case. We can try to save as many lives as we can thanks to modern medicine, but me pointing out who is most at risk from Covid-19 isn't me being cold and callous, it's a fucking fact!

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